The War in Georgia

By now, I'm sure that we've all heard about what's going on in Georgia. Several comments:

1) The War - Unlike what's been suggested in the NYT, the timing of Georgia's operation was not set to coïncide with the Olympics, rather the timing of Russia's invasion was. The evidence:

a) Up until the beginning of August, all regional eyes were focused on Abkhazia, where through deft diplomacy and compromise, Mikhail Saakashvili had managed to craft a plan to bring piece to the region, by giving the Abkhaz wide autonomy. As the weeks wore on, Russia came under greater and greater pressure to allow the Abkhaz to accept the Georgian plan.

b) For the past two months, Russia has been slowly massing troops on the Ossetian section of the Georgian border (there is a trans-Caucasian tunnel there). There have been incidents involving Georgian sightings of Russian aircraft, a dud Russian missile that landed in Georgian territory, and the shooting down of an unmanned Georgian drone. When the West didn't force Russia to back down, the buildup continued.

c) There has been fighting in South Ossetia since at the latest August 1. The Russians chose August 8th to invade, so that the Olympics would mask their troop movements, just as the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan occurred over the Christmas holiday.

2) The Olympics - Russia was very clever to invade when it did. Its sad remark upon American society that we are more concerned with the opening ceremonies of the Olympic games (and to some degree the revelation that a washed-up, moronic ex-pol. had an affair), than the invasion of a sovereign, democratic, free state. This is Munich, 1938. Except now, Russia has taken the place of Nazi Germany. The World has looked on and protested feebly (if at all) as the people of Russia have let their freedoms be eroded, beginning with multi-party politics, continuing through the destruction of the independent media, violent attacks on ethnic minorities (frighteningly popular), the rise of a youth arm of the dictatorship (Nashi, anyone?), and now moving on to conquest of its neighbors/former colonies.

3) Georgia - while not the World's best functioning democracy, as shown by the protests last November, is a democratic state. Mikhail Saakashvili again demonstrated his mandate in January, when he won 53% of the vote (albeit amidst some, minor allegations of vote-rigging). Its citizens enjoy a free press, freedom of speech, and the right to choose their political leaders. They are able to exercise their economic freedoms as well - Georgia is a liberal (economically) nation, surrounded on 2 sides by dictatorships (Russia and its stooge Armenia). It is the West's easternmost bastion of liberty. In short, it is Czechoslovakia of the 1930s, in the 2000s.

4) Turkey - doesn't much like Russia. It has recently organized an economic and semi-political alliance between itself, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. After 2 centuries of invasion over the Caucasus, it is not going to accept Russian troops on its border. Earlier today, they agreed to supply Georgia with electricity for the duration of this crisis.

5) South Ossetia - as an American diplomat made it clear at the UN, this is not about ethnic cleansing. In the early 1990s, local militias, backed by Russia, drove ethnic Georgians (then the majority) out of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They have yet to return. Georgia, upon retaking disputed areas, has shown itself to be moderate and forgiving in its rule. Ajaria (retaken a few years back) has prospered.

6) Geopolitics - Russia wants a trans-Caucasian foothold. The two ways around the extremely tall ( > 10,000 ft) Caucasus are on the two costs (Abkhazia and Azerbaijan) and through a mountain pass, or a tunnel in the center (South Ossetia). Is it thus surprising that Russia has taken an interest in these regions?

7) Further Expansion - Russia and Belarus have already nearly merged several times in the past. Georgia is the first democracy that has been targeted. You can bet that Ukraine is next.

In closing, the words of Saakashvili when interviewed on CNN:

CNN: What should the West and the United States do now?
Saakashvili: Wake up! Wake up. What is happening now is not about Georgia; it is about the basic values the West has...the basic values the US has always preached [to] us...and if the West doesn't defend those values they will be under threat today in Georgia, tomorrow elsewhere.